18 September 2008

Crisis averted for now...

So as I wrote last night, the relative stability in the Yen proved to be a good indicator for the fact that the markets would pull through. This does not mean that the crisis is over, but stocks should rally for the next month or so. The next shoe to drop will be defaults in the corporate bond sector, which will prove that the chaos in the markets over the last 14 months has spread to the real economy. But given the extremely weak covenants in the bond market in the second half of 2006 and the first half of 2007, these defaults will take place later in the cycle then normal. That being said, almost two years out from the period of lax underwriting the defaults can't be too long now. So don't you be to long either. Sell into the rally.

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