16 May 2010

Stop freaking out, you know you're okay.

The Dow is going somewhere just south of 9000. The Euro is going to $1.15. Gold is eventually going to $2400, once the dollar turns around.

Will everyone please calm down? The markets are working.

The only present concern is the fact that everyone who can is bailing out of long-term European peripheral-economy debt by selling it to the European Central Bank. The amount the ECB is actually purchasing is the only relevant data point. If they are forced to purchase excessive amounts, they will not be able to sterilize their purchases, turning so called "credit easing" (I've also heard the nonsense term "qualitative easing" used) into "quantitative easing." In fact, the Federal Reserve fell into a liquidity trap when they attempted their form of "sterilized" quantitative easing, and were forced to print money to prop up the falling money supply.

If their hand is forced there is a real danger the Euro will hit parity to the dollar. (Or as my fiancee suggested, falls below parity... "It's only fair.") So far the adjustment is in line with events, and the re-balancing of the Euro is equating supply and demand of money and goods judiciously. But if parity happens, America and Europe will be in deep shit.

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